A study presented by Greener during Summit 2026, and released in October 2026, estimates that more than 62,000 consumers served at medium voltage in Brazil could achieve an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of at least 20% by installing battery energy storage systems. The survey focuses on the commercial and industrial segment, known in the sector as C&I, and makes clear that the result depends on the reference assumptions adopted in the modeling.
What the study presented
The core of the work is to size a market that, until now, tended to be treated in a more qualitative way. By pointing to a universe of more than 62,000 medium-voltage consumer units with attractive return potential, Greener provides a benchmark figure for those evaluating behind-the-meter battery opportunities, that is, batteries installed within the customer's own premises.
The chosen metric was IRR, an indicator that expresses the profitability of an investment over its useful life, taking into account the initial outlay and the cash flows generated afterward. A minimum threshold of 20% is generally considered attractive for smaller infrastructure projects, which explains the attention the figure received. Even so, the study itself conditions the result on the calculation assumptions, and this detail is essential to interpret the number correctly.
Why medium voltage concentrates the potential
Medium-voltage consumers are typically commercial establishments, industries, hospitals, shopping malls, distribution centers and other users with significant consumption. Unlike residential consumers, they usually contract demand with the distribution utility and are subject to tariffs that vary according to time of use. It is precisely in this environment that a BESS can generate value.
Among the most common battery applications in the C&I segment are:
- Load shifting: charging the system during periods of cheaper energy and discharging when the tariff is higher;
- Peak demand reduction: smoothing the power drawn from the grid to avoid exceeding limits and optimize contracted demand;
- Support for self-generation: storing the output of on-site solar systems for use at other times;
- Operational continuity: providing support during supply interruptions, which is valuable for sensitive loads.
The sum of these revenue or savings streams, stacked on a single asset, is what usually underpins a project's financial viability. For this reason, each customer's IRR varies considerably depending on load profile, the tariff structure it is subject to and the intended use of the system.
The weight of assumptions
The study stresses that the result is tied to the reference assumptions adopted. In analyses of this kind, the most sensitive assumptions usually involve equipment acquisition and installation costs, battery degradation over time, the number of cycles per year, the evolution of energy tariffs, the cost of capital and the applicable regulatory rules. Small changes in any of these items can significantly alter the calculated return and, consequently, the size of the viable market.
In practice, the figure of more than 62,000 consumers should be read as a snapshot of potential under a specific scenario, not as guaranteed demand. It indicates where to look for opportunities, but each project still requires an individual analysis of load, tariff and site technical conditions.
What this means for the Northeast
The study does not provide a regional breakdown, but there is a factor in Brazil's Northeast that directly affects battery performance and lifespan: heat. A survey by ENLACE in substation areas in the region points to an average of 62 days per year above 35 °C in Piauí, 44 days in Ceará and 20 days in Bahia. High temperatures accelerate cell degradation and increase the consumption of climate control systems in containers and cabinets, which affects precisely the sensitive IRR assumptions.
For C&I consumers in the Northeast, this means that projects with attractive returns on paper need to incorporate, from the outset, adequate thermal sizing, warranties compatible with the local climate and realistic degradation estimates. Ignoring this point can turn a promising IRR into a below-expected result.
Our take
In our assessment, the study signals that the battery market in Brazil does not depend only on large grid-connected projects or auctions. There is a relevant and fragmented space in the commercial and industrial segment, with investment decisions made customer by customer. We see this movement as complementary to larger projects, with shorter sales cycles, but requiring analytical and standardization capabilities to gain scale.
What remains undefined is how robust the figure is under different scenarios. Since the survey itself depends on reference assumptions, variations in equipment prices, tariffs, financing costs or regulatory rules could shrink or expand the viable universe. We also do not know, based on what was released, how this potential is distributed across regions and sectors, which limits more specific conclusions for each market.
In the coming weeks, it is worth following the detailing of the assumptions used by Greener, any sensitivity analyses and the reaction of distribution utilities, financiers and large consumers to the figure. The source does not mention deadlines or formal decisions associated with the study, so the most prudent approach is to treat it as a market reference rather than an immediate demand trigger.
What changes in practice for the BESS market
For developers, the study reinforces the importance of screening tools that quickly identify, based on bills and load curves, which medium-voltage customers are most likely to see a return. For EPCs, the challenge is to standardize installation solutions that reduce cost and lead time without compromising safety and thermal management. Manufacturers are likely to find demand for modular products suited to small spaces and hot climates. Suppliers of services, financing and operation and maintenance can develop models that spread out the customer's initial investment. In all cases, the message is the same: the potential exists, but conversion depends on well-validated assumptions and projects tailored to each consumer's reality.
Original source: Greener — BESS C&I: mais de 62 mil consumidores apresentam potencial de retorno.
Julio Martinez