An article published by Greener on July 13, 2026 brings together 26 risks that may decide whether projects registered in the first Capacity Reserve Auction dedicated to storage, the LRCAP Storage 2026, will be able to secure financing. The analysis highlights an imbalance in the debate around the auction. So far, the discussion has revolved around battery prices, bid competitiveness and access to credit, while other risk factors have been pushed into the background.
What is at stake in the first battery auction
The LRCAP is a procurement mechanism in which the power system pays for the availability of capacity, not just for the energy delivered. The goal is to ensure resources are ready to meet demand at times of greatest stress on the grid. In the 2026 edition, for the first time in Brazil, this procurement will be dedicated to battery energy storage systems, known as BESS (Battery Energy Storage Systems).
Because it is unprecedented, the auction has no track record to serve as a reference for investors and lenders. That is why the question of bankability carries so much weight. A project is bankable when its risks are identified, allocated among the parties and mitigated to the point that banks and funds agree to finance it on viable terms. A competitive bid alone is not enough for that.
Why look beyond battery prices
The central point of Greener's article is that focusing on equipment costs and bid values gives an incomplete picture. By pointing out 26 risks, Greener's message is that the financial viability of an auction-contracted BESS depends on several elements that must be assessed together.
In storage projects generally, lenders' analysis tends to cover a few fronts:
- Regulatory and contractual risks: how remuneration rules, penalties and availability obligations are defined and applied throughout the contract.
- Connection risks: whether there is grid connection margin, that is, available capacity to export and receive the project's power at the chosen point.
- Construction risks: construction timelines, import logistics and the performance of those executing the project.
- Technological and operational risks: battery degradation, manufacturer warranties and the ability to meet technical requirements over the entire term.
- Supply risks: possible local content requirements and dependence on foreign supply chains.
These categories are a conceptual reference for those structuring projects. The point Greener highlights is precisely that this broader set of factors has not received the same attention as price.
The role of lenders
In capacity auctions, the winning bid sets the project's revenue. If it is calculated without accounting for risks that later materialize, the margin may disappear. Lenders look precisely at this gap between contracted revenue and potential costs and penalties. The more risks left unmapped, the greater the demand for guarantees tends to be and the harder it is to structure the debt.
What changes in practice for the BESS market
For developers planning to compete in the LRCAP Storage 2026, the message is to build a complete risk matrix before setting the bid. Pricing only the battery is not enough. The pricing strategy must reflect connection, contract, operation and timeline.
For EPCs, the trend is greater pressure for clear commitments on schedule, performance and contractual liability, since these items feed directly into the bankability assessment.
For manufacturers and suppliers, performance guarantees, delivery predictability and technical documentation that allows lenders to understand the equipment's behavior over the contract term gain importance.
In short, Brazil's first battery auction is likely to favor those who arrive with fully structured projects, not just those offering the lowest price.
Original source: Greener — 26 riscos que podem definir a bancabilidade do primeiro leilão de baterias do Brasil